2007 inventory & prices: Up, down or sideways?

By Bennett Zucker
December 4th, 2006

Fairfax Digital’s The Age says online publishers down under are dropping prices by up to 60 percent as massive amounts of new, lower-priced inventory hit the market (Low-cost online rivals hurt major net publishers). In contrast, the article also quotes a major buyer who expects only a 5% to 10% price drop, and a publisher who suggests that deflation will end and prices will rise again when brand advertiser budgets start kicking in next spring.

Regardless of whether Australia is a bellwether, the concerns of buyers and sellers about unstable inventory and pricing are universal. In the U.S., total display inventory has more than doubled over the past 18 months according to AdRelevance, while prices have continued to rise for both premium and non-premium ads (eMarketer).

Working with research provider Insight Express, Right Media recently surveyed top 200 web publishers for their views on inventory and pricing and the outlook for 2007. Among pertinent findings, the research shows that publishers who have invested in a dedicated yield management effort - i.e., they’ve committed the organization to measurable goals, assigned accountability to people with authority, and implemented appropriate systems - are more optimistic about the future.

These publishers simply have more confidence in their ability to spot material changes in supply and demand ahead of time and to make necessary adjustments before significant changes become crises.

On the flip side, publishers who have not invested in people, process and philosophy appear to be counting on a buoyant market continuing to carry them. Perhaps they are still unaware that tools are readily available to help them get the most out of every impression - regardless of whether the inventory is sold by their own sales team or by multiple ad networks.

Watch this space for details about a white paper detailing the study, “How publishers think about, manage and monetize non-premium inventory.”

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